How does Jim pick put credit spreads?

What are Jim Fink’s criteria for establishing new positions on put credit spreads?

Jim’s most consistent criterion for selecting a stock is positive seasonality over the past ten years. (See also  What is Jim Fink’s seasonality app?) He looks for stocks that have performed extremely well — and consistently — between the date of the recommendation and the option expiration date over the past ten years. Then he takes the list of stocks that pass this seasonality screen and evaluates their fundamentals. When a stock has both excellent positive seasonality, is trading at a price at or below his fair-value calculation, and whose options exhibit liquidity (i.e., tight bid/ask spreads), the stock makes his short list of recommendation candidates.

Specifically, to set up a put credit spread, Jim requires:

  • A minimum $1.00 net credit on a $5 spread. That's a 25% return in just a few months. (Although he's willing to adjust down to $0.85, or a 20% return on the eighth and final day of trading. See his 8-Day Fill Rule.)
  • The short put strike that he's selling to be out-of-the-money (OTM), meaning the short put strike price is below the stock's current market price.
  • Both the short put strike price and the stock's current market price be below his estimate of the underlying stock’s intrinsic value.

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